Quantification of Shipping Emissions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Comparison with Satellite Observations

Shipping is considered as one of the main emission sources worldwide. Recent studies suggest that, in the Mediterrenean, ship emissions are responsible for 10-50% of black carbon, 2-12% ozone in the surface layer and 5-20% for nitrogen dioxide atmospheric column burden (Marmer et al., 2009). It is, therefore, essential to have an accurate emissions estimation for ships. Marmara Sea, an inland sea connecting the Mediterrenean to the Black Sea, has significant marine activity. Marmara region, surrounding the Marmara Sea, has over 30 million population (including Istanbul megacity) with significant emission sources (e.g., on-road traffic, industry). Emission amounts from ships can be calculated based on two different methodologies, one is according to the total amount of bunker fuels for maritime transport sold which is called top down approach and the other is shipping activity-based bottom-up approach. The top-down estimation method is not suitable for calculations of shipping emissions in Turkey since fuel sales cannot be accurately obtained. Also, top-down approaches possibly have some errors, since data assumptions for the average engine power, engine operating hours and emission factors are the most important uncertain inputs. Previously, a few studies based on bottom-up aproach have been carried on about shipping emissions in Marmara Sea according to the shipping statistics belong to Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and port regions. These studies were mainly depending on very rough assumptions such as avearage ship speed, fixed ships routes, generalized engine types and average fuel consumptions. Deniz C. (2008) estimated shipping emissions in 2003, for Marmara Sea and Turkish Straits as 111,000 tons for NOx, 87,000 tons for SO2, 5,451,000 tons for CO2, 4762 tons for PM. Although- between 2003 and 2008- there is approximately 15% increase in number of ships passsing through Turkish Straits, this study shows that, shippings emissions for the same region are estimated to be more than 3 times of previous studies. In this study, Automatic Information System (AIS) records of marine vessels (having 1 minute temporal resolution) for over 10,000 ships operating at the study area (including Marmara Sea, Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and some parts of Black Sea and Aegian Sea) were obtained from Turkish Undersecretariat for Maritime Affairs for the period between August 2008 and August 2009. These records include the position of the ships, gross tonnage and ship types. Using energy based emission factors for each operation mode, minute-by-minute emissions were estimated. Annual emission totals for merchant ships were estimated as 605,000 tons for NOX; 495,000 tons for SO2; 25,600 tons for HC; 53,300 tons for PM and 29,630,000 tons for CO2. This paper presents the methodology and the findings of the emissions estimates for ships. The results will also be compared to satellite observations. For this purpose, CO measurements from MOPITT and SO2 measurements from OMI will be utilized.