Drought in the Nile Basin: characterizing variability, quantifying uncertainty, and studying processes with the Nile Land Data Assimilation System

The Nile Land Data Assimilation System (Nile LDAS) has been developed to support studies of hydrologic variability, land cover patterns, and climate change impacts in the countries that share the Nile basin. Here we present results of retrospective Nile LDAS simulations that examine climatic and hydrologic variability across the basin in recent decades. Use of Nile LDAS in this study allows us to compare patterns of drought as captured by different precipitation datasets—including Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation products, the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and multiple meteorological reanalyses—different land surface models—including Noah Land Surface Model, the Common Land Model, and Catchment LSM—and independent satellite observations—including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Results of Nile LDAS simulations show distinct temporal and spatial patterns of drought across the climatic gradients of the Nile basin. These results also demonstrate that diagnosis of drought patterns is sensitive to choice of meteorological dataset and land surface model. We present an objective classification of drought susceptibility zones based on the results of these Nile LDAS simulations, including assessment of confidence and uncertainty. Lastly, we discuss the possible drivers of hydrological variability at the local to the basin scale. Follow-on studies are in progress to merge, compare, and improve Nile LDAS datasets in order to provide optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes in the Nile basin, with the ultimate objective of improving drought analysis and response in an evolving climate.