TOWARDS OPERATIONAL FORECASTING OF LOWER ATMOSPHERE EFFECTS ON THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND IONOSPHERE: INTEGRATED DYNAMICS IN EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE (IDEA)

The upper atmosphere and ionosphere exhibit variability and phenomena that have been associated with planetary and tidal waves originating in the lower atmosphere. To study and be able to predict the effects of these global-scale dynamical perturbations on the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics system a new coupled model is being developed under the IDEA project. To efficiently cross the infamous R2O “death valley”, from the outset the IDEA project leverages the natural synergy between NOAA’s National Weather Service’s (NWS) Space Weather Prediction and Environmental Modeling Centers and a NOAA-University of Colorado cooperative institute (CIRES). IDEA interactively couples a Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) with ionosphere-plasmasphere and electrodynamics models. WAM is a 150-layer general circulation model (GCM) based on NWS’s operational weather prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) extended from its nominal top altitude of 62 km to over 600 km. It incorporates relevant physical processes including those responsible for the generation of tidal and planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere. Long-term simulations reveal realistic seasonal variability of tidal waves with a substantial contribution from non-migrating tidal modes, recently implicated in the observed morphology of the ionosphere. Such phenomena as the thermospheric Midnight Temperature Maximum (MTM), previously associated with the tides, are also realistically simulated for the first time.