How Robust are Science-Based Disaster Preparedness Strategies? Lessons from Western Sumatra (Invited)

Forecasts of the next likely megathrust earthquake which will occur off the western coast of Sumatra, possibly in the near future, indicate that it will likely be tsunamigenic and could be more devastating than the 2004 event. Hundreds of simulations of potential earthquakes and their tsunamis show that, while the earthquake is fundamentally unpredictable, many scenarios would see dangerous inundation of low-lying areas along the west coast of Sumatra; the cities of Padang and Bengkulu broadside-on to the areas of highest seismic potential have a combined population of over one million. Understanding how the science of unpredictable, high probability events is absorbed by society is essential for the development of effective mitigation and preparedness campaigns. A five month field investigation conducted in Padang and Bengkulu aimed to conceptualise the main issues driving risk perception of tsunami hazard, and explore its influence upon preparedness. Of specific interest was the role of scientifically quantified hazard information upon risk perception and hazard preparedness. Target populations were adult community members (n=270) and senior high school students (n=90). Preliminary findings indicate that scientific knowledge of earthquake and tsunami threat amongst respondents in both cities is good. However the relationship between respondent’s hazard knowledge, desired risk perception, and the adoption of preparedness measures was often non-linear and is susceptible to the negative effects of unscientific forecasts disseminated by government and mass media. Evidence suggests that ‘mystic’ predictions often portrayed in the media as being scientific, have been readily absorbed by the public; when these fail to materialise the credibility of authentic science and scientists plummets. As a result levels of sustainable earthquake and tsunami preparedness measures adopted by those living in tsunami threatened areas can be detrimentally impacted. It is imperative that the internationally accredited science of high probability, unpredictable natural hazards prevails within public consciousness in western Sumatra, despite the frequent circulation of unsubstantiated predictions and claims relating to these events. While the management of this information ultimately lies with government, the recent past has dictated a need for scientists to become more proactive in ensuring their work is accepted as a foremost source of knowledge used to guide accurate risk perceptions and stimulate the adoption of appropriate preparedness measures.