Climate Change and Famine: Implications for Remote Sensing Applications to Enhance Food Security

Agriculture and climate are tightly linked, and climate change is transforming that linkage in ways that are not broadly understood. Increasing global mean temperatures and extreme weather events are expected to have a profound effect on future crop production and food availability; especially considering the persistent effects current climactic variability has on food insecurity today. Over the next several decades, projected changes in weather patterns pose a serious threat to food security, particularly in semi-arid tropical regions already food insecure. These changes are amplifying the need for expanding decision support tools and earlier early warning so that decision makers will have longer time horizons for planning and preparedness. Our research is helping evaluate what remote sensing data will be most useful in meeting this need. Multiple national/international organizations have created decision support tools that summarize information about food security status in key regions. These include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s CropExplorer and U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET early warning of agricultural production declines that may affect food security is characterized by weekly weather hazard assessments, and relies upon vegetation, temperature and rainfall data derived from remote sensing to identify abnormal weather related conditions. Previously published research utilized a questionnaire to elicit inputs from professionals who use Earth science data to address FEWS NET’s institutional needs. This work identified that rainfall and vegetation products are valued as data that provide actionable food security information. The questionnaire also led to key findings regarding planned FEWS NET enhancements, and that the focus of a recent NASA-funded project on developing new seasonal forecast products was well placed: planned forecast products for rainfall and vegetation would be considered useful. To assess if these weather related forecasting data products are sufficient to meet early warning needs, a follow-up questionnaire will be disseminated to these same professionals to evaluate if these enhancements have improved their ability to make actionable food security decisions in light of uncertainties related to the effects of climate change. If proven useful, these insights would support the conclusion that weather-related biophysical forecasts can play a crucial role in providing earlier estimates of weather-related agricultural production deficits. Other survey questions will address how users anticipate climate change will affect food security, and what other food security decision support tools might be useful in changing agroclimatic regimes. Understanding the impacts global climate change has on agriculture may better equip decision makers to confront the effects upon already fragile food security situations, anticipate actions required to mitigate further food insecurity, and provide earlier early warning. It is hoped that dependable forecasts can play an important role in an emerging global food security “system of systems”.