Hydrology, errors in climate models, and the prediction of extreme events in future climates

Large Errors in the climate model simulations of the earth's climate are shown to start with the first two steps of climate system energetics: the interaction of solar radiation with the atmosphere and earth's surface and the return of the solar radiation absorbed at the surface to the atmosphere through turbulent heat fluxes. Interestingly, one of the main causes of these errors is the H2O molecule, apparantly in all its phases. Because positive feedbacks due to H20 are necessary for any appreciable warming due to increased CO2 our inability to simulate the mean state of the present climate due to the non-linearities associated with water has large implications for predicting deviations from the mean in future climates.