Simulated Topography in Western North America Impacts Hemispheric Circulation Patterns and Regional Precipitation in IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

Simulations of the late-20th century (1979-1999) by most of the coupled models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) overestimate mean winter (November to April) precipitation for all or part of western North America in comparison to observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. These precipitation errors appear to be associated with 1) a southward bias in 200-hPa zonal-wind speeds, 2) overly zonal flow patterns (weak Pacific-North America pattern), and 3) muted rain shadows, all of which are also prevalent among general circulation models. In addition, the magnitude of error in simulations of late-20th century winter precipitation is significantly correlated with projected changes in winter precipitation in the mid- and late-21st century over parts of the southwestern United States and Mexico, increasing uncertainty about the timing and extent of drying in a region where water resources are already stressed and intensifying drought is expected. We suggest that these problems are related to difficulties in simulating the extent, volume, and topographic complexity of the Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada, Cascades and other mountain ranges in the West within the relatively coarse models. These results identify areas of concern in regional precipitation and water resource projections and suggest steps that can be taken to improve both hemispheric-scale circulation patterns and regional hydrological projections for western North America within general circulation models.