Community Climate Change Adaptation based on Past Trends and Future Projections

In anticipation of climate change, the community of Prince George, BC has taken steps towards adaptation of community infrastructure. An introductory summary of impacts on temperature, precipitation and streamflow was prepared by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) and presented at several workshops. From the workshops the implications of these changes were identified with feedback from senior city staff and planners and documented in a report, Climate Change in Prince George: Summary of Past Trends and Future Projections and will form the basis of the report Adapting to Climate Change in Prince George. Prince George is a city of roughly 77,000 inhabitants, built on a flood plain at the confluence of the Nechako and Upper Fraser rivers. During the winter of 2007-2008, Prince George experienced severe ice-related flooding when lands along the lower Nechako River were inundated causing extensive damage. The watersheds surrounding Prince George encompass the headwaters of the largest river in BC (the Fraser) and have been heavily impacted by mountain pine beetle. These factors make this region susceptible to climate change impacts, and maintaining water security in this region is a concern to both the residents of Prince George and the Province. Over the last century the city experienced an average warming trend of 1.3°C. In recent decades, Prince George has become warmer in the winter season and a greater percentage of precipitation has fallen as rain rather than snow. Future climate projections were used with an evaluation of uncertainty to allow planners, managers and engineers to better integrate this information and make informed decisions as they prepare to adapt. Annual temperatures in the region are projected to increase by an average of 1.6°C to 2.5°C over the next 50 years. Precipitation during this time is projected to increase by 3% to 10%, with increases occurring primarily in winter and decreases possibly occurring in summer. These precipitation and temperature changes will result in changes to streamflow timing and amount that depend on watershed location and type. PCIC partnered with a local resident and expert in adaptation to synthesize these findings and place them in the context of vulnerabilities particular to their community. PCIC has undertaken several similar assessments and has established that an integral part of the procedure is identifying a local champion who leads the effort of defining community needs and ensuring that the report addresses these issues. The champion facilitates a two-way knowledge transfer that is the first step in the complex and difficult process of engaging stakeholders with diverse needs and conflicting demands for limited water resources. Many organizations and user groups such as Rio Tinto Alcan, who regulate flow on the Nechako River, have a stake in water resource management in this north-central region of the Province.