Spatially explicit scenario of terrestrial emissions from biomass burning and net land-use change for the use of climate projection

In the preparatory phase of IPCC AR5 experiment, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) has been constructed by Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) groups as new forcing scenario data used for climate/earth system modeling groups. In the process of RCP6 scenario development (which is conducted by AIM, Asia-Pacific Integrated Model, NIES), we evaluate spatially explicit long-term carbon emissions from biomass burning and net land-use change CO2 emission as complementations of anthropogenic emissions scenario prepared from socio-economic model. To evaluate the emission from biomass burning, we incorporate vegetation fire component in terrestrial biogeochemical process model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). For the net land-use change CO2 emission, we deploy land-use change transition matrix data from RCP scenario to calculate deforestation (primary/secondary vegetation into cropland/pasture/urban) emissions and also calculate regrowth absorption from abandonment of cropland and pasture using VISIT. To check the model consistency, pattern of historical emission in the 20th century is analyzed and also comparison with contemporary data of biomass burning emission from satellite observations is conducted. For the future emission, scenario dependent uncertainty of terrestrial emission is examined considering CO2 concentration scenario and the land-use change transition data itself, and reveals the relative importance of CO2 concentration through the CO2 fertilization effect of terrestrial ecosystem.