Are expansive North American marshes a relict of historical land use change?

Fluctuations in sea level rise rates are thought to dominate the evolution of coastal wetlands. Indeed, many salt marshes developed during a late-Holocene deceleration in sea level rise, vertical accretion rates commonly mimic rates of sea level rise, and observations of degradation in marshes today are often attributed to high relative sea level rise rates. Here, we consider a contrasting scenario in which land-use related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain the morphology of marshes despite recent sediment supply reduction and sea level acceleration. Our stratigraphic analysis suggests that much of the Plum Island Estuary (MA) existed as a shallow subtidal bay with marshes occupying high elevations along its perimeter. Around 1800 AD, salt marshes rapidly prograded across the basin, constricting the bay into a well defined marsh-channel network system. We attribute this marsh expansion to increased rates of sediment delivery associated with regional deforestation associated with European settlement. Expansive marshland exits along the North American coast today despite 20th century sea level acceleration and sediment supply reduction associated with dam construction and reforestation. Numerical modeling suggests that these factors lead to deepening of marsh elevations relative to sea level, but that ecogeomorphic feedbacks that enhance accretion and limit channel erosion allow marshes to persist in a metastable equilibrium even under conditions in which they could not develop. If true, expansive marshland along the North American coast is a relict feature of high 19th century sediment delivery rates, and marshland lost today will not be recovered in the future, even if rates of sea level rise and sediment delivery were to stabilize.