Trends in Agricultural Growing Seasons Due to Climatic Shifts in Africa: Implications for Food Security

Some of the most profound and direct impacts of climate change over the next few decades will be on agricultural production and the broader food system. Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to these impacts due to their under developed economies and the predominance of small farmer, subsistence agriculture. This paper focuses on understanding variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations, which are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. A retrospective analysis on the relationship between climate indices and environmental productivity may provide the tools to better manage agricultural investment on the African continent. This paper will present an analysis of the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We explore spatial relationships between agricultural growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the three climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The results show that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The talk will conclude with analysis which will put these climate-related factors into perspective, as just one element in the overall food security of the region. Agricultural investment policies, the functioning of markets and trade, and an increasing population are at least as important for the food security on the continent. Sustainability of livelihoods will depend both on the ability of vulnerable populations to adapt to changing growing conditions and to compete on the global market for food.