Dynamic modeling of stress evolution and crustal deformation associated with the seismogenic process of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake

We model stress evolution and crustal deformation associated with the seismogenic process of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake. This earthquake ruptured a section of the Longmen Shan fault, which is a listric fault separating the eastern Tibetan plateau at northwest from the Sichuan basin at southeast, with a predominantly thrust component for the southwest section of the fault. Different driving mechanisms have been proposed for the fault system: either by channel flow in the lower crust, or lateral push from the eastern Tibetan plateau on the entire crust. A 2-D finite element model is devised to simulate the tectonic process and test validities of the models. A layered viscoelastic media is prescribed, and constrained from seismological and other geophysical investigation results, characterized with a weak lower crust in the western Tibetan plateau and a strong lower crust in the Sichuan basin. The interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic deformation processes are modeled, under constraints of GPS observed deformation fields during these time periods. Our preliminary result shows concentration of elastic strain energy accumulated mainly surrounding the lower part of the locking section of the seismogenic fault during the interseismic time period, implying larger stress drop at the lower part than at the upper part of the locking section of the fault, assuming a total release of the elastic stress accumulation during an earthquake. The coseismic stress change is the largest at the near field in the hanging-wall, offering explanation of extensive aftershock activities occurred in the region after the Wenchuan mainshock. A more complete picture of stress evolution and interaction between the upper and lower crust in the process during an earthquake cycle will be presented at the meeting.