Earthquake ground motion prediction for real sedimentary basins: which numerical schemes are applicable?

Numerical prediction of earthquake ground motion in sedimentary basins and valleys often has to account for P-wave to S-wave speed ratios (Vp/Vs) as large as 5 and even larger, mainly in sediments below groundwater level. The ratio can attain values larger than 10 in unconsolidated sediments (e.g. in Ciudad de México). In a process of developing 3D optimally-accurate finite-difference schemes we encountered a serious problem with accuracy in media with large Vp/Vs ratio. This led us to investigate the very fundamental reasons for the inaccuracy. In order to identify the very basic inherent aspects of the numerical schemes responsible for their behavior with varying Vp/Vs ratio, we restricted to the most basic 2nd-order 2D numerical schemes on a uniform grid in a homogeneous medium. Although basic in the specified sense, the schemes comprise the decisive features for accuracy of wide class of numerical schemes. We investigated 6 numerical schemes: finite-difference_displacement_conventional grid (FD_D_CG) finite-element_Lobatto integration (FE_L) finite-element_Gauss integration (FE_G) finite-difference_displacement-stress_partly-staggered grid (FD_DS_PSG) finite-difference_displacement-stress_staggered grid (FD_DS_SG) finite-difference_velocity-stress_staggered grid (FD_VS_SG) We defined and calculated local errors of the schemes in amplitude and polarization. Because different schemes use different time steps, they need different numbers of time levels to calculate solution for a desired time window. Therefore, we normalized errors for a unit time. The normalization allowed for a direct comparison of errors of different schemes. Extensive numerical calculations for wide ranges of values of the Vp/Vs ratio, spatial sampling ratio, stability ratio, and entire range of directions of propagation with respect to the spatial grid led to interesting and surprising findings. Accuracy of FD_D_CG, FE_L and FE_G strongly depends on Vp/Vs ratio. The schemes are not applicable to media with large Vp/Vs ratio and thus to real sedimentary basins. Surprisingly, FD_DS_PSG is the worst scheme for the lowest values of the Vp/Vs ratio. Errors of FD_DS_SG and FD_VS_SG are very close and small (relative to other schemes), and they are least sensitive to variation in Vp/Vs. In parallel with the numerical results and their analysis we compare the numerical schemes themselves in terms of their inherent structures and applied approximations. We also discuss properties of recent higher-order numerical schemes.