Experimental use of Land Surface Models in the La Plata Basin

Soil moisture is a key variable that controls the partitioning between sensible and latent heat flux, and under favorable conditions, it can modulate precipitation. The overlying boundary layer can be affected by soil moisture anomalies when persisting for an enough period of time. Several studies have shown the influence of surface processes in the South American atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. However the absence of a comprehensive observation network over that region represents a disadvantage for determining and quantifying memory and coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere. The La Plata Basin (LPB) in southeastern South America is recognized as an area of great importance for the economic and social development of several countries. Vast areas of this basin have experienced changes in land cover conditions due to the expansion of the agriculture (replacing natural vegetation), but also due to changes in crop types. This work presents results from an ensemble of four land surface models (Noah, CLM, MOSAIC and SiB2) used for climatic characterization of the past 30 years of soil moisture and temperature over the LPB. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) was downscaled to be used to force the land surface models at 10Km, 3-hourly resolutions. Two sets of runs were made for this study: first, the LSMs were forced using reanalysis data to characterize the climatological states at coarse resolution, and second, the models were run using South American LDAS forcing fields from 2000 until present at higher resolution. The resulting spread among the different models was used as a measure of uncertainty in the initial states. In particular, the surface states derived from the Noah model were rescaled and used as initial conditions for atmospheric model simulations using the coupled ETA/Noah models. The control run was performed using prescribed climatological monthly values of vegetation parameters whereas the experiment run used a combination of AVHRR and MODIS Leaf Area Index mapping to represent the changes in land surface characteristics at finer scales. The relationship between soil states and regional circulation patterns (e.g., the South American Monsoon and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone) was investigated and the results were also used to estimate the impacts of land surface changes in the frequency, duration, intensity and variability of occurrences of droughts and floods in the LPB.