Statistical Examination of the Resolution of a Block-Scale Urban Drainage Model
Abstract
Stormwater drainage models are utilized by cities in order to plan retention systems to prevent combined sewage overflows and design for development. These models aggregate subcatchments and ignore small pipelines providing a coarse representation of a sewage network. This study evaluates the importance of resolution by comparing two models developed on a neighborhood scale for predicting the total quantity and peak flow of runoff to observed runoff measured at the site. The low and high resolution models were designed for a 2.6 ha block in Bronx, NYC in EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) using a single catchment and separate subcatchments based on surface cover, respectively. The surface covers represented included sidewalks, street, buildings, and backyards. Characteristics for physical surfaces and the infrastructure in the high resolution mode were determined from site visits, sewer pipe maps, aerial photographs, and GIS data-sets provided by the NYC Department of City Planning. Since the low resolution model was depicted at a coarser scale, generalizations were assumed about the overall average characteristics of the catchment. Rainfall and runoff data were monitored over a four month period during the summer rainy season. A total of 53 rain fall events were recorded but only 29 storms produced significant amount of runoffs to be evaluated in the simulations. To determine which model was more accurate at predicting the observed runoff, three characteristics for each storm were compared: peak runoff, total runoff, and time to peak. Two statistical tests were used to determine the significance of the results: the percent difference for each storm and the overall Chi-squared Goodness of Fit distribution for both the low and high resolution model. These tests will evaluate if there is a statistical difference depending on the resolution of scale of the stormwater model. The scale of representation is being evaluated because it could have a profound impact on how low-impact development strategies are assessed. Rerouting flows to delay the time of entry into the combined sewage is the primary goal of stormwater source controls which may be better differentiated in a high resolution as opposed to low resolution model. The preliminary hypothesis is that the low resolution model simplifies watershed by defining attributes uniformly across the watershed. In the high resolution model, the physical flow can be more accurate depicted by connected the various subcatchments. For example, the runoff from buildings can directly be routed to the backyard. The main drawback to the high resolution model is the risk of adding uncertainty due to the number of parameters.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFM.H41F0969G
- Keywords:
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- 1846 HYDROLOGY / Model calibration;
- 1847 HYDROLOGY / Modeling;
- 1873 HYDROLOGY / Uncertainty assessment;
- 1879 HYDROLOGY / Watershed