Transboundary Climate Change Effects on the Hydrologic Regime in the Rio Conchos Basin
Abstract
This paper presents results of research to assess potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources in the Rio Conchos basin, with special emphasis on impacts on the transboundary water treaty signed between the US and Mexico in 1944. The Rio Conchos watershed, the main tributary of the lower portion of the bi-national Rio Grande/Bravo river basin, is located in Chihuahua state in northern Mexico. It has a surface drainage of 67,800 km2, with a river length of 750 km. One of the problems most relevant to the study basin is the frequent occurrence of long drought periods such as those that occurred in 1950s, 1960s, and the most recent from 1992 to 2002. Coupled with increased water demand and low irrigation efficiencies means that competition for water resources is high on both sides of the border. Furthermore, this hydrological behavior has contributed to the difficulty of Mexico meeting the treaty requirements, and accumulating substantial water deficits as a result. These facts have motivated this research, whose main objectives are: 1) develop a model of the hydrological behavior of the Rio Conchos basin; 2) downscale climate data for the basin from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change emission scenarios; 3) simulate the basin under the climate change scenarios; 4) assess climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in the basin; and 5) simulate and evaluate water management scenarios that may help to mitigate the climate change effects in the next decades. A methodology is proposed that includes hydrologic and water allocation modeling, downscaling, simulation, and evaluation of climate change impacts on the transboundary treaty and some water management strategies to mitigate negative effects of climate change.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFM.H33I..05M
- Keywords:
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- 1807 HYDROLOGY / Climate impacts