Future Management and Control of the Lower Mississippi River

In many ways the Mississippi River, which drains an area of over 1,245,000 square miles (covering 31 states and two Canadian provinces), is a highly engineered system due to the presence of control structures and levees. These features provide the necessary controls for flood protection and for sustaining navigation routes to a number of economically important ports. The lower portion of the River is subject to temporally dynamic forcings due to the high variability in annual flow rates (up to 700,000 cfs) and Gulf of Mexico conditions, both of which are expected to change over the coming decades as a result of climate change. Another phenomena that is having a major impact on the lower River delta is subsidence---some parts of coastal Louisiana are experiencing subsidence rates of up to 1 cm/year. As a result, the relative sea level rise rates in coastal Louisiana will be higher than many other delta systems throughout the world. A calibrated and validated two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been developed for the lower River (from River Mile 105, around New Orleans out to the -100 m depth in the Gulf of Mexico) that includes all of the lower River passes and many of the dynamic forcings from the Gulf. This model has been used to look at the flow distribution through the various passes and to investigate the potential impact of large-scale river diversion into the adjacent wetlands. In this talk, we will discuss the framework for incorporating model results under projected sea level rise conditions as well as more extreme flow conditions on future use and management of the River. Examples will be shown depicting the impact on flow distribution through the passes and other uncontrolled sections of the lower River, salt water migration, and the effectiveness of river diversions.