Simulating Lake-Groundwater Interactions During Decadal Climate Cycles: Accounting For Variable Lake Area In The Watershed

The volume and extent of a lake within the topo-bathymetry of a watershed can change substantially during wetter and drier climate cycles, altering the interaction of the lake with the groundwater flow system. Lake Starr and other seepage lakes in the permeable sandhills of central Florida are vulnerable to climate changes as they rely exclusively on rainfall and groundwater for inflows in a setting where annual rainfall and recharge vary widely. The groundwater inflow typically arrives from a small catchment area bordering the lake. The sinkhole origin of these lakes combined with groundwater pumping from underlying aquifers further complicate groundwater interactions. Understanding the lake-groundwater interactions and their effects on lake stage over multi-decadal climate cycles is needed to manage groundwater pumping and public expectation about future lake levels. The interdependence between climate, recharge, changing lake area and the groundwater catchment pose unique challenges to simulating lake-groundwater interactions. During the 10-year study period, Lake Starr stage fluctuated more than 13 feet and the lake surface area receded and expanded from 96 acres to 148 acres over drier and wetter years that included hurricanes, two El Nino events and a La Nina event. The recently developed Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF1) and Lake (LAK7) packages for MODFLOW-2005 were used to simulate the changing lake sizes and the extent of the groundwater catchment contributing flow to the lake. The lake area was discretized to occupy the largest surface area at the highest observed stage and then allowed to change size. Lake cells convert to land cells and receive infiltration as receding lake area exposes the underlying unsaturated zone to rainfall and recharge. The unique model conceptualization also made it possible to capture the dynamic size of the groundwater catchment contributing to lake inflows, as the surface area and volume of the lake changed during the study period. Groundwater flows simulated using daily time steps over a 10-year period were used to describe the relationship between climate, the size of the groundwater catchment, and the relative importance of groundwater inflow to the lake water budget. Modeling approaches used in this study should be applicable to other surface-water bodies such as wetlands and playa lakes. Lake Starr watershed (depressions from sinkholes)