Regional modeling of groundwater flow and arsenic transport in the Bengal Basin: challenges of scale and complexity (Invited)

Widespread arsenic poisoning is occurring in large areas of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India due to high arsenic levels in shallow groundwater, which is the primary source of irrigation and drinking water in the region. The high-arsenic groundwater exists in aquifers of the Bengal Basin, a huge sedimentary system approximately 500km x 500km wide and greater than 15km deep in places. Deeper groundwater (>150m) is nearly universally low in arsenic and a potential source of safe drinking water, but evaluation of its sustainability requires understanding of the entire, interconnected regional aquifer system. Numerical modeling of flow and arsenic transport in the basin introduces problems of scale: challenges in representing the system in enough detail to produce meaningful simulations and answer relevant questions while maintaining enough simplicity to understand controls on processes and operating within computational constraints. A regional groundwater flow and transport model of the Bengal Basin was constructed to assess the large-scale functioning of the deep groundwater flow system, the vulnerability of deep groundwater to pumping-induced migration from above, and the effect of chemical properties of sediments (sorption) on sustainability. The primary challenges include the very large spatial scale of the system, dynamic monsoonal hydrology (small temporal scale fluctuations), complex sedimentary architecture (small spatial scale heterogeneity), and a lack of reliable hydrologic and geologic data. The approach was simple. Detailed inputs were reduced to only those that affect the functioning of the deep flow system. Available data were used to estimate upscaled parameter values. Nested small-scale simulations were performed to determine the effects of the simplifications, which include treatment of the top boundary condition and transience, effects of small-scale heterogeneity, and effects of individual pumping wells. Simulation of arsenic transport at the large scale adds another element of complexity. Minimization of numerical oscillation and mass balance errors required experimentation with solvers and discretization. In the face of relatively few data in a very large-scale model, sensitivity analyses were essential. The scale of the system limits evaluation of localized behavior, but results clearly identified the primary controls on the system and effects of various pumping scenarios and sorptive properties. It was shown that limiting deep pumping to domestic supply may result in sustainable arsenic-safe water for 90% of the arsenic-affected region over a 1000 year timescale, and that sorption of arsenic onto deep, oxidized Pleistocene sediments may increase the breakthrough time in unsustainable zones by more than an order of magnitude. Thus, both hydraulic and chemical defenses indicate the potential for sustainable, managed use of deep, safe groundwater resources in the Bengal Basin.