Are reactive transport models reliable tools for reconstructing historical contamination scenarios?

This presentation will be based on a recent project effort that I completed while serving as a member of National Academy of Sciences and Engineering panel. The primary goal of this congressionally-mandated project effort was to review scientific evidence on the association between adverse health effect s and exposure to a contaminated water supply system at the U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (CLJ) in North Carolina. The detailed NRC study report was released in June 2009, and is available at this NRC weblink: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12618. Multiple water supply systems at this Marine Base were contaminated with harmful chemicals, such as PCE, TCE and other waste products, since the early 50s. In 1982, a routine water quality survey completed at the site indicated the presence of several volatile organic compounds including PCE and TCE. Further investigations revealed that there are several waste disposal facilities located on-site that have discharged TCE and other waste products into groundwater systems. In addition, there was also an off-site dry cleaning facility located close to the Tarawa Terrace in-take well locations that disposed PCE into the subsurface environment. The dry cleaner has been using PCE since 1953 and disposed various forms of PCE-contaminated wastes in a septic tank and in several shallow pits. Therefore, the residents who lived in Tarawa Terrace on-site family housing units had the potential to be exposed to these harmful environmental contaminants through the drinking water source. In late 1980s, the concerns raised by CLJ public lead to an epidemiological study to evaluate the potential associations of utero and infant exposures to the VOCs and childhood cancers and birth defects. The study included births occurring during the period of 1968-1985 to women who were pregnant while they resided at the base. Since there was no monitoring data available for the study period (1968-1982), researchers used reactive transport models to reconstruct the historical concentration levels. In this presentation, I will first briefly review the details of the contamination problem and the modeling results. Later I will use the field study to answer the following questions: 1) Are reactive transport modeling tools sufficiently reliable for reconstructing historical VOC contamination at field sites? 2) What are the benefits of using reactive transport models for resolving policy problems related to a groundwater risk/exposure assessment problem? Finally, we will use this example to answer a rhetorical question—-how much complexity is too much complexity?