A view on global permafrost distribution

The response of permafrost to climate change has diverse effects of diverse magnitude and timing. These include feedbacks to the climate system as well as effects on landscape dynamics, ecosystems, and humans. In this context - especially near the limits of permafrost existence - permafrost maps and models are an important source of information. Here I present a global permafrost model at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (<1km) using the combined GLOBE/SRTM30 DEM and the CRU TS 2.0 data set of air temperatures. The model is based on a transformation of simple, established relationships between climate and the occurrence of permafrost into a one-parameter model allowing to investigate and to propagate model uncertainty. Using this model, a consistent and traceable estimate of permafrost distribution is available for the global land surface excluding Antarctica but including South America and New Zealand. Based on this, questions like: How much permafrost area exists? How much of this is in mountains? Can be answered more consistently than before. Additionally, the number of people potentially affected by permafrost or its changes is investigated as a further metric of interest.