Changes in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclones Activity

The variability in the activity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones at seasonal scales, and beyond, has been linked to significant changes in the ocean - atmosphere system. The dominant factors affecting the development of North Atlantic tropical cyclones are: sea surface temperature (SST), surface pressure, atmospheric instability, humidity, and vertical shear of the mean flow. Changes in such factors at climate time-scales modulate the frequency of tropical cyclones and their most destructive manifestation, namely the hurricanes. Some of these changes have been observed to be linked to large-scale perturbations, such as ENSO, and other ocean - atmosphere oscillations and teleconnections. This study reports findings on changes in SST anomalies and their possible links to tropical cyclones. Using SST data over the last six decades, we illustrate statistical connections by applying novel mathematical techniques between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and tropical cyclones. Possible interactions between AMO, climate change and the fate of tropical cyclones are discussed in the context of recent advances in climate research.