First-principles-based modeling of geomagnetically induced currents at mid- and low- latitudes

Recently, Pulkkinen et al. (2007, Annales Geophysicae) introduced an approach to predict geomagnetically induced current (GIC) flow in high-voltage power transmission systems based on first-principles modeling of the near-space plasma environment. Their approach that has already been implemented as an experimental real-time system providing forecasts of GIC in the North American power transmission system, however, is applicable only to high-latitude situations. The accumulating new evidence is indicating that GIC is not only a high-latitude phenomenon but is important also at lower latitudes. Consequently, new tools and approaches are called for to address the newly appreciated truly global nature of GIC. In this paper we will briefly describe the current implementation of the experimental real-time GIC forecasting system operated at Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA/GSFC and address the shortcomings of the system. We will introduce the approach we have chosen to attack the problem of first- principles-based mid- and low-latitude GIC. The approach not only requires more comprehensive modeling of the near-space plasma environment by means of coupling global magnetohydrodynamic models to kinetic models of the inner magnetosphere (presented in a paper by Buzulukova et al., fall AGU 2008) but also more complex modeling of the geomagnetic induction process. We will present preliminary results generated by using the new GIC modeling capability and we will discuss the means to transfer the new approach into a real-time GIC forecasting system.