Evolution of the Pleistocene Climate Continuum

Orbital-climate theory provides a powerful deterministic framework for the analysis of Pleistocene climate change, and has become a cornerstone of modern Paleoclimatology. The stochastic component of Pleistocene climate has received considerably less attention, although some studies have argued for the dominance of stochastic climate processes. Undoubtedly, a complete understanding of the controls on Pleistocene climate change necessitates an assessment of both deterministic and stochastic processes, as well as potential linkages between the two. In this study, we investigate changes in the dominance of deterministic versus stochastic climate processes associated with evolution of the Pleistocene climate system. Achievement of this objective requires: (1) careful selection and analysis of paleoclimate data series, to isolate true climate noise from other proxy noise sources (e.g., proxy fidelity, time-scale distortion, diagenesis, analytical error), and (2) application of quantitative methods capable of separating deterministic periodic signals (the spectral "lines") from the stochastic component of climate (the spectral "continuum"). This study focuses on an analysis of published benthic foraminifera oxygen isotopic records using a number of techniques rooted in Thomson's multi-taper method, which is specifically designed to separate deterministic "line" energy from stochastic "continuum" energy. Our analysis indicates large, and sometimes abrupt, changes in the relative dominance of stochastic versus deterministic energy. These changes in energy distribution parallel the evolution of the Pleistocene climate system. This analysis also demonstrates linkages between stochastic and deterministic climate processes, and yields insight into the mechanisms of Pleistocene climate change.