Theoretical model for the control of Pleistocene moisture availability in the Tropics: combining independent movement of north and south boundaries of the ITCZ and precessional forcing.

Paleoclimate records of tropical moisture availability suggest there are complex controls. Using marine and continental records from both South America and Africa it is possible to resolve these influences and start to build a theoretical model explaining variations in both rainfall and moisture availability. The first control is the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Evidence is emerging that the northern and southern boundaries of the ITCZ move independently. The extreme seasonal position of the boundary is controlled by the temperature gradient between the Equator and the relevant Pole. The temperature gradient of each Hemisphere is governed primarily by the prevalent boundary condition i.e., whether it is a glacial or interglacial period. The secondary influence are millennial-scale changes such as the Heinrich events. This idea is important as it moves away from the concept that the ITCZ is a fixed band which moves north and south. The second major control is precession which influences seasonality in the Tropics. This is important as it controls the strength of convection in each Hemisphere and thus the strength of the resultant monsoon. For example Amazonia monsoon is controlled by Southern Hemisphere convection strength, while the Congo and SE Asia monsoons are controlled by the Northern Hemisphere. In terms of tropical rainfall it has been shown by GCMs that precession can have the same scale of affect as switching from a glacial to an interglacial period. In summary the relative position of the northern and southern boundaries of the ITCZ controls the location of rainfall. While precession controls the intensity of the convection within the ITZC and thus the strength of the monsoon. This radical new theoretical framework explains why rainfall and moisture records from the same region e.g., Amazonia can be very different on a millennial and centennial time-scale. New evidence from Amazonia and East Africa combined with ice core data will be presented to support this new theoretical model.