Simulations of Tsunami Hazard from Regional Sources in the South China and Adjoining Seas

We examine the tsunami potential from sources located in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas, by running simulations using the MOST code for a number of scenarios of possible earthquakes at the various local subduction zones. In the Sulawezi Sea, we consider the events of 1918 at the Mindanao subduction zone, and 1996 at the Northern end of the Makassar Strait. In the Sulu Sea, we consider a scenario inspired by the 1948 Panay earthquake (because of the fractured nature of the plate system in those areas, it is not feasible to consider much larger earthquakes). In all three cases, we find that the tsunami is contained within the relevant marginal sea and does not penetrate significantly the greater South China Basin, but could cause significant damage to the Eastern coast of Borneo. Farther North, we consider as worst case scenarios events reaching 10**29 dyn*cm with rupture lengths of 400 km, both off Luzon Island and, under a slightly different geometry, off the Luzon Straits separating the Philippines and Taiwan. Such scenarios carry very significant hazard to all coastlines bordering the South China Sea, including Indochina and Borneo. We will also present models of landslide-generated tsunamis, inspired from the event of 14 February 1934 off the Luzon Strait, and the presumably Holocene Brunei mega-slide.