Incorporating JPL ECCO Ocean Data Assimilation Into the ECPC Climate Prediction Model Seasonal Forecasts.

At the Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, we have developed the ECPC Coupled Prediction Model (ECPM) for long lead (up to 12 months) experimental seasonal forecasts. The coupled model consists of the ECPC Global Spectral Model (GSM) coupled to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean model. We performed ECPM retrospective forecasts for different months during 1993-2007. The initial oceanic conditions were obtained directly from the JPL ocean analysis. Since we use the same ocean model configuration as the JPL analysis, our model forecast starts smoothly from the ocean analysis, without any noticeable initial shocks. We will review the model prediction skill of the SST anomalies over NINO3.4 region, and global precipitation and 2m temperature anomalies. We will also illustrate the implementation of the ECPM seasonal forecasts into fisheries outlooks.