Nearshore Circulation and Storm Surge Along the Mackenzie Delta Coast

The Mackenzie Delta is a 150 km long section of coastline characterized by muddy sediments where the Mackenzie River outflow, dispersed over 20 distributary channels, discharges into the southern Beaufort Sea. The marine environment in this region is an important and integral part of the lives of Canadian Northerners. The area is also undergoing hydrocarbon exploration with potential development within the next decade. Changes to Arctic climate, such as increasing ice-free western Arctic Ocean and intensifying storm activity, may endanger the coastal settlements and marine environment in the Mackenzie Delta region. The low gradient of the delta and the adjacent inner shelf makes it very susceptible to flooding during storms. Field observations in the nearshore zone collected in August of 2007 and 2008 indicate strong gradients in temperature and salinity in shallow water of 2-6 m. The fluctuations are associated with the movements of warm and fresh river plumes and wind-driven upwelling of cold and saline water below the thermocline. The observations are in agreement with 3D model simulations of the nearshore delta region using Delft3D, which includes wind, tidal, storm surge, buoyancy and river forcing. The results validate the model and indicate that it can be used to hindcast the nearshore oceanographic conditions during severe Arctic storms. As a case study we present preliminary model results for an Arctic storm from late 1999 that caused extensive vegetation die-off in the outer delta. This cyclone was a mesoscale Arctic storm that developed over the NE Pacific and western Bering Sea, intensified explosively in the Gulf of Alaska and developed into a meteorological bomb. The storm made landfall at Cape Newenham, Alaska, crossed the Rocky Mountains to the Yukon and Northwest Territories and re-intensified over a zone of high sea surface temperature gradients in the southern Beaufort Sea. Using the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) atmospheric model, simulations of the storm pattern, track and intensity are in very good agreement with the NCEP re-analysis. This is model coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and Hibler Ice Model, which are used to provide basin-scale driver fields and define the boundary conditions of the nearshore Delft3D model for the Mackenzie Delta region. Coastal damage was predominately caused by storm surge, and the high salinity flood waters that flowed over the surface of the outer delta.