Economic Vulnerability Assessment of U.S. Fishery Revenues to Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification, a predictable consequence of rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions, is poised to change marine ecosystems profoundly by decreasing average ocean pH and the carbonate mineral saturation state worldwide. These conditions slow or reverse marine plant and animal calcium carbonate shell growth, thereby harming economically valuable species. In 2006, shellfish and crustaceans provided 50% of the 4 billion U.S. domestic commercial harvest value; value added to commercial fishery products contributed 35 billion to the gross national product that year. Laboratory studies have shown that ocean acidification decreases shellfish calcification; ocean acidification--driven declines in commercial shellfish and crustacean harvests between now and 2060 could decrease nationwide time-integrated primary commercial revenues by 860 million to 14 billion (net present value, 2006 dollars), depending on CO2 emissions, discount rates, biological responses, and fishery structure. This estimate excludes losses from coral reef damage and possible fishery collapses if ocean acidification pushes ecosystems past ecological tipping points. Expanding job losses and indirect economic costs will follow harvest decreases as ocean acidification broadly damages marine habitats and alters marine resource availability. Losses will harm many regions already possessing little economic resilience. The only true solution to ocean acidification is reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions, but implementing regional adaptive responses now from an ecosystem-wide, fisheries perspective will help better preserve sustainable ecosystem function and economic yields. Comprehensive management strategies must include monitoring critical fisheries, explicitly accounting for ocean acidification in management models, reducing fishing pressure and environmental stresses, and supporting regional economies most sensitive to acidification's impacts.