Remarkably Gaussian Tephra Fallout from Basaltic Eruptions

Tephra fallout models used to forecast volcanic hazards rely on the advection-diffusion equation to forecast hazards. If the advection-diffusion equation applies, then the thickness of tephra blanket deposits should show Gaussian crosswind profiles and exponential decay with distance from the vent. Complications may arise due to factors such as particle size distributions, particle density, and atmospheric effects not incorporated in the advection-diffusion model. Continuous profiles derived from GPR surveys collected on the tephra blanket of Cerro Negro Volcano, Nicaragua allow us to test the advection-diffusion model. Steady trade winds coupled with eruptions that tend to be brief and relatively low energy create relatively simple deposits. Data was collected for cross wind profiles at varying distances from the vent. Horizons identified in these profiles exhibit Gaussian distributions with a high degree of statistical confidence. Additionally, the shape of one continuous profile leading from the crater rim out onto the tephra blanket is examined.