Assessing Error in Modelled Ocean Carbon Uptake Resulting From Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Parameters

Estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux produced by ocean biogeochemical models are uncertain due to poorly constrained model parameters. Here, we present the results of an analysis into the biochemical parameters that influence air-sea CO2 flux, and the error that results from uncertainties in these parameters in GCMs. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the Hadley centre Ocean Carbon Cycle (HadOCC) NPZD biogeochemical model used in the HadCM3 GCM. This uses a 1D test bed with forcing from different locations and identifies the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, formation of calcite and the sinking of organic matter to have greatest effect on the calculated air-sea CO2 flux. These parameters are tuned to data at sites with very different biochemical cycles and are then used to explore the resulting error in global ocean carbon fluxes within GCMs.