Development of Rapid Earthquake Shaking and Loss Assessment Methodologies

Main objective of this study, conducted under the JRA-3 component of the EU Project entitled "Network of research Infrastructures for European Seismology, NERIES", is to develop a methodology for real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The earthquake shaking and loss information will be disseminated in a timely manner to related agencies for the planning and coordination of the post-earthquake emergency response. This multi-level methodology being developed together with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships The development encompasses the following general steps: 1. Finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic data base, basic source parameters and if and when possible, by the estimation of fault rupture parameters from rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. 2. Estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion attenuation relationships and/or actual physical simulation of ground motion. 3. Estimation of the spatial distribution of site-specific ground selected motion parameters using regional geology (or urban geotechnical information) data-base using appropriate amplification models. 4. Incorporation of strong ground motion and other empirical macroseismic data for the improvement and enchantment of the ground motion distribution (Shake Map) 5. Estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (Loss Map) A software called "ELER" based on this methodology is currently under development. Within the scope of this paper, results obtained from a pilot application of this methodology and the ELER software to the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake interms of ground shaking and losses are presented and comparisons with the observed losses are made.