Land Subsidence and Groundwater Resources Investigations with the Use of D-InSAR, Numerical Modeling, and Field Data in the Toluca Valley, Mexico

In the Toluca Valley, Mexico, urban and industrial growth have resulted in groundwater pumping exceeding recharge. Currently, there is a significant water budget deficit within the basin primarily due to groundwater pumping, and the loss is increasing with time. The stresses on the aquifer have caused significant changes on the water flow patterns, a reversal in the direction of hydraulic gradients, the disappearance of artesian springs and wetlands and noticeable land subsidence within the basin. The focus of this study is the investigation of water resources and land subsidence with the use of Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (D-InSAR), numerical modeling, and field data. The study is divided into two parts: 1) investigation of groundwater depletion in the Toluca Valley; and 2) assessment of land subsidence in the Toluca Valley. A spatially variable recharge model based on the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) numerical model examines the recharge; pumping estimates are based on a recent census and differences in piezometric surfaces. Currently there is a net loss (recharge - pumping) of over 150 million cubic meters per year of groundwater within the Toluca Basin aquifers. We examine various changes in regional flow patterns, and groundwater levels decline throughout the valley. At the current rate of consumption, groundwater resources are not sustainable for the population of the valley. Directly related to the decrease in groundwater levels is the occurrence of land subsidence. Regional land subsidence of the Toluca Valley is observed with the use of SAR images obtained from the European Space agency's ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT Satellites and the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT-1 satellite. Data from years 1996 to 2008 are used to locate and quantify the subsidence; with subsidence rates reaching more than 15 cm/year. Results from the different sensors are also compared. The findings are verified with in-situ extensometers installed around the city of Toluca and the industrial corridor where the most significant subsidence and decline in groundwater levels are found. Based on a 3D geological model and the water budget, future flow patterns and land subsidence occurrences are predicted with a coupled 3D flow and 1D compaction model, and calibrated with remote-sensing images and on-site surveys.