Predictions of Changes in Precipitation by 2030

Natural variability on decadal and multi-decadal timescales makes an important contribution to changes in the climate in the near future. Until recently, many climate projections did not include information on the current state of the climate, thus not accounting for the exact phase of internal variability which may enhance predictions for the next few decades. We present estimates of changes in precipitation expected by the 2030s, based on predictions with the Met Office Hadley Centre's decadal prediction model (Smith et al, Science 317, 2007), initialised with observed climate states and including anthropogenic influences. Given the importance of variations in rainfall in hydrological processes, these are useful input into adaptation responses.