The Western Energy Corridor Initiative: Unconventional Fuel Development Issues, Impacts, and Management Assessment

The United States is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas; commodities for which other nations are competing and for which future supply may be inadequate to support our transportation fuel needs. Therefore, a renewed interest in 'harder-to-get' unconventional fuels has emerged in both industry and government with directed focus on world class hydrocarbon resources within a corridor extending from Canada southward through the Rocky Mountain States. Within this Western Energy Corridor, co-located with significant conventional hydrocarbon and renewable energy resources, lie some of the world's richest unconventional hydrocarbon resources in oil shales, oil sands and coal for coal-to-liquid conversion. However, development of these resources poses substantial environmental concerns as well as increasing competition for limited resources of water and habitat. With large-scale energy development in the predominantly rural region, local communities, infrastructures, and economies will face increasing demands for roads, electricity, law enforcement, labor, and other support services. The Western Energy Corridor Initiative (WECI) seeks to develop an integrated assessment of the impacts of unconventional fuel development, the interrelationships of planned energy developments in different basins, and the resultant demands placed on the region. This initial WECI study focuses on two of the most important current issues for industry, regulators, and stakeholders -- the assessment of carbon and water resources issues, impacts, and management strategies. Through scenario analyses using coupled systems and process level models, this study investigates the viability of integrated development of multiple energy resources in a carbon neutral and environmentally acceptable manner, and the interrelationships of various energy resource development plans. The modeling framework is designed to extend to include infrastructure, employment, training, fiscal and economic demands placed on the region as a result of various development and climate change scenarios. The multi-scale modeling approach involves a systems dynamics (SD) modeling framework linked with more detailed models such as one for basin-scale hydrology investigating the spatial relationships of water rights and requirements, reservoir locations, and climate change impacts (the details of the SD model and the hydrologic model are presented in other contributions by Pasqualini et al. and Wilson et al.). A link to a CO2 sequestration performance assessment model is also being built to enable analysis of alternative carbon management options. With these evolving capabilities, our analyses consider interdependent demands and impacts placed on the region for various development scenarios.