A Science Plan for Development of an Arctic System Model

In the last 50 years a wide variety of changes in the Arctic have been documented. Regardless of the driving forces, the combined observations and documentation suggest that the arctic system may be entering a state unprecedented in the history of civilization. The complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes interact to such a degree that it is not possible to understand future trajectories without developing holistic perspectives of the complete system. A central justification for developing an 'Arctic System Model' is to strengthen our understanding of the inter-connections among system components and related feedback processes, thereby enhancing the predictive capability required for societal planning and response to future change. A recent community workshop has identified the objectives and strategic elements that comprise a plan for Arctic System Model development and implementation. The objective encompasses our understanding of change, attribution of change, and effects of change. The plan includes the use of a limited area model, driven at the boundaries by a global model. The limited-area model approach allows for the use of computationally sophisticated algorithms and very high resolution to resolve processes parameterized in global models. The implementation strategy includes the utilization of ongoing efforts in component modeling, together with community oversight and a dedicated vehicle for the provision of coordination, support activities, and liaison with the observational and user communities.