Global and regional climate modeling with implications for current and future glacier mass balance in the Western Himalaya and the Western Cordillera

Results from regional climate modeling for the Himalayan region are presented with an emphasis on the large scale circulation patterns (such as the monsoon and ENSO) that can impact snow accumulation and glacier mass balance in the western Himalaya between 2000 and 2007. Diagnostic analyses indicate this region to be uniquely sensitive to the respective strengths of the westerlies and the summer monsoon, which is in turn affected by ENSO. Competition between the relatively warm monsoon winds versus the relatively cold westerlies in this region of confluence determine both the summer temperature and summer snow accumulation. Results from a global model configured with a conservative greenhouse gas emission scenario are also presented for 2010-2100. Results from nested regional modeling over North America's Western Cordillera are presented. Initial increases in snow accumulation over high topography during the first 25 years are subsequently dominated by the warming by 2075 with dramatic decreases in accumulation by 2100. Implications for glacier ELAs in the region are discussed.