Climate Trends of Precipitation and Surface Temperature for Different Observed Databases and IPCC Models in Mexico

This paper presents an analysis of climate trends of precipitation and surface temperature for nine zones of Mexico during the period 1961-1990. The study uses four climatological databases: the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Meteorological National Service of Mexico of the National Commission of the Water (SMN), and fifteen GCMs that participated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in which precipitation and surface temperature are analyzed for January, April, July and October, to have a good representation of the annual cycle. The study makes a comparison among the four "observed" databases and one will be chosen for model validation based on his spatial and temporal resolution. The last database will help us to compare historical climate trends from "observations" with those from the GCMs, by getting both the correlation and the root mean square deviation between models and the reference observed database.