Solar Data Assimilation Engine for Ionospheric Forecasts

The Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) is a Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) project that couples space environment models together under the Earth System Modeling Framework, while ensuring that the component models are scalable and portable. BEI is sponsored by the High Performance Computing Modernization Office and managed by Air Force Weather Agency and Naval Research Laboratory. The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model are the first two coupled components in the SWMS. Serving as a data assimilation engine, the HAFv2 model uses solar observations to prepare its initial solar wind conditions. Then, the HAFv2 internal algorithms and the initial conditions determine the present and future states of the solar wind conditions at Earth. The outputs of HAFv2 are provided to GAIM to forecast the time-dependent energy input into the high- latitude ionosphere. This presentation describes how the HAFv2 model is being used as a solar data assimilation engine for producing forecasts of solar wind parameters, that then serve as inputs to drive GAIM and other near-Earth space environment models. The overarching goal is to extend the lead time and skill of forecasts of space weather conditions and their corresponding impacts on operational customers.