Base-level Response to Holocene Climate Change in the Central Appalachian Mountains of North America: Preview of Global Warming?

Global Warming is expected to bring about substantive changes in global precipitation patterns, which will lead to altered stream hydrologies. The directions and magnitudes of streamflow changes can be inferred from climate projections, but changes in stream architecture and base level are open questions. We address base level response to climate change by reconstructing river behavior during the mid- to late Holocene, including the Hypsithermal when peak Holocene temperatures were achieved. We reconstruct the climate of the Greenbrier River watershed of the central Appalachian Mountains of North America using the stable isotope geochemistry of a stalagmite, cave sediments, and published pollen data. Independently, we construct a history of base level position using cave sediments deposited by the river. Stalagmite values of δ18O and δ13C are heavy during the Hypsithermal, which pollen results indicate was warm and dry compared to the rest of the Holocene. Cave sediments deposited by the Greenbrier River record base level as having been below the cave during the early and late Holocene, but above the cave during the Hypsithermal. The mid-Holocene base level rise is attributed to infilling of the channel with as much as 4 m of sediment, presumably a response to changes in storm frequency and stream hydrology. Global Warming will cause temperatures to exceed those of the Hypsithermal. Flood zones will extend to higher elevations and flood risks and vulnerabilities will increase dramatically if Appalachian rivers respond to Global Warming as the Greenbrier River did to the Hypsithermal.