We here propose a long-range connective sandpile model with variable connection probability Pc, which has an important impact on the slope of the power-law frequency-size distribution of avalanches. The long-range connection probability Pc is changed according to an explicit function of the size of the latest event, although the evolution rule of Pc may be different in various physical systems. Such version of the sandpile model demonstrates large fluctuations in the dynamical variable (t) (the spatially averaged amount of grains retained within the grid at each time step), indicating the state of intermittent criticality in the system. Many researches have suggested that the earthquake fault system is an intermittent criticality system, which would imply some level of statistical predictability of great events. Our modified sandpile model thus provides a testing ground for many proposed precursory measures related to great earthquakes.
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2007
- 4425 Critical phenomena;
- 4430 Complex systems;
- 4475 Scaling: spatial and temporal (1872;
- 4480 Self-organized criticality