Subduction Stability: Lithospheric Strength and Roll-back

In exploring the issue of subduction zone stability, we ran a series of simulations representing subduction systems consisting of simple 2D representations of oceanic lithosphere subducting beneath continental lithosphere. Our modelling software utilizes temperature dependent visco-elasto-plastic rheologies as well as a few proxies for significant chemical processes such as ecologitization and hydration. With externally imposed convergence rates, these models evolve from a contrived subduction initiation state to "normal-looking" subduction within approximately 10 million years. The simulations are then allowed to continue to evolve for up to 30 million more years. From our early results, we note that while most systems start with similar subduction geometries, they may deviate from each other over time. Notably, subduction initiated at "cooler" (and therefore stronger) junctures tend to form very stable subduction zones which maintain normal-looking geometries throughout the life of the simulation. However, subduction initiated at warmer margins tend to result in slab rollback relatively quickly. Systems with junctures of intermediate temperature also tend to subduct stably for a substantial amount of time, yet they too eventually result in rollback as the subducting slab entrains and removes some of the cooler lithosphere near the juncture, allowing hotter asthenospheric material into the contact region between the plates. The hot, low-viscosity material sharply reduces the fluid-dynamically derived suction force that partially supports the stable subduction geometry, facilitating the retreat of the subducting slab as well as the rifting of the over-riding slab. These simulations incorporate a variety of approximations and assumptions which may not reflect the actual conditions within the Earth. However, they do offer a chance to observe how a system that at least appears geometrically similar to observed Earth systems may behave when subjected to varying conditions. These early results suggest that the longevity of a stable subduction zone may be partly tied to the strength of the material of the over-riding plate with strong plates perhaps "holding" subduction zones in place while weak or weakened plates allow for slab retreat. Of course, other parameters may also contribute heavily to these outcomes, but they have not been systematically tested as of the time of this writing.