Burridge-Knopoff Model as an Educational and Demonstrational Tool in Seismicity Prediction

While our effort is ongoing, the fact that predicting destructive earthquakes is not a straightforward business is hard to sell to the general public. Japan is prone to two types of destructive earthquakes; interplate events along Japan Trench and Nankai Trough, and intraplate events that often occur beneath megacities. Periodicity of interplate earthquakes is usually explained by the elastic rebound theory, but we are aware that the historical seismicity along Nankai Trough is not simply periodic. Inland intraplate events have geologically postulated recurrence intervals that are far longer than human lifetime, and we do not have ample knowledge to model their behavior that includes interaction among intraplate and interplate events. To demonstrate that accumulation and release of elastic energy is complex even in a simple system, we propose to utilize the Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model as a demonstrational tool. This original one-dimensional model is easy to construct and handle so that this is also an effective educational tool for classroom use. Our simulator is a simple realization of the original one dimensional BK, which consists of small blocks, springs and a motor. Accumulation and release of strain is visibly observable, and by guessing when the next large events occur we are able to intuitively learn that observation of strain accumulation is only one element in predicting large events. Quantitative analysis of the system is also possible by measuring the movement of blocks. While the long term average of strain energy is controlled by the loading rate, observed seismicity is neither time-predictable nor slip-predictable. Time between successive events is never a constant. Distribution of released energy obeys the power law, similar to Ishimoto- Iida and Gutenberg-Richter Law. This tool is also useful in demonstration of nonlinear behavior of complex system.