Grid-Based and Fault-Based Search for Precursory Accelerated Moment Release (AMR): A Prototype Model for CSEP

Accelerated Moment Release (AMR) has been proposed as a potential method to predict large (plate-boundary scale) earthquakes. We present two algorithms that randomly search global plate boundaries for AMR signals before potential large events. The current version of the algorithm uses plate boundaries defined by Coffin et al. [1998]. Each plate boundary is searched for AMR using circular regions following the method of Bowman et al.[1998] and fault-based stress accumulation regions following the approach of Bowman and King [2001]. In the fault-based algorithm, we use a schematic model of the plate-boundary faults to represent potential sources; subduction zones are modeled as a single mega-thrust fault, spreading centers as a normal faults, and transforms as single strike-slip faults. In each approach, the entire global plate boundary network is populated by potential sources and searched for precursory AMR. False-alarm and Failure-to-predict statistics are presented based on historical seismicity. At present, the algorithm is restricted to searching for precursory activity before potential events covering a narrow predetermined magnitude range. A version of the algorithm that permits variable target magnitudes is in development and will be submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability as a prototype fault-based forecasting scheme.