Data Exploration Study of Atmospheric TIR Signals Associated with Tectonic Faulting and Earthquake Processes

This paper extends previous research to explore statistically the relationship between earthquake processes and atmospheric thermal anomalies in order to study the phenomena and their significance. Specifically, we analyzed and compared long time series atmospheric thermal field data over California to create statistical summaries of the correlation of thermal variations with earthquake events (both spatially and temporally) in terms of average plots, upper and lower standard deviations and anomalies. Our data exploration methodology is based of an analysis of: (1) Outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) observed by the AVHRR sensor on NOAA POES series satellites (data provided by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center); and (2) seismic activity in the study site as recorded by the USGS. We perform analysis of earth radiation on the atmosphere (daytime and nighttime) and OLR by analyzing monthly and daily averages around the area of major tectonic faulting and earthquake epicenters. Both "normal" and "anomalous" states of the satellite and ground segments were defined for 27 years of data, for both monthly and daily averages. Preliminary results show correlation of the OLR and tectonic activity during the time of the major earthquake occurrence, and existence of false alarms (positive /negative) for the period of data analysis. The outcome of this study has potential to contribute in two major areas of interests: (i) performance of a comprehensive statistical analysis of the correlation between transient atmospheric signatures and (ii) development of a methodology to evaluate the requirements of TIR signal measurement for future observation system development associated with tectonic faulting