Conceptual Model Linking Land Use to Human Consumption in the Agriculture Sector

Human activities are profoundly influenced by weather and climate. Agriculture is the most extensive and important uses of land, and is particularly sensitive to climate variability. In this talk we will present a conceptual model that seeks to integrate human appropriation of terrestrial net primary production (HANPP) with socio- economic models to explore the influence of commodities markets on land use decisions. Focusing on a single commodity as a building block, we explore the methodological and data requirements of the model, presenting the impact of precipitation, temperature, population and land use on food prices through a carbon-based calculation of supply and demand. We demonstrate the critical importance of accurate and temporally varying land use maps for models that integrate the social and biophysical spheres and show the mechanistic sensitivity of land use to change in the supply and demand ratio.