Synchrony of Pandemics, Fire Reduction, and Reforestation in the Tropical Americas With Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Changes During European Conquest

A new reconstruction of the biomass burning history of the tropical Americas is consistent with expanding fire use by Mesoamerican and Amazonian agriculturalists from 2000 to 500 years BP and a subsequent period of fire reduction due to indigenous demographic collapse. Our reconstruction synthesizes published data from stratigraphic charcoal accumulation records from lake and bog sediments and soil charcoal records, including soil charcoal obtained from archeological Amazonian Dark Earth sites. The charcoal data provide fire histories from over 40 localities and enable reconstruction of the Late Holocene regional biomass burning history of the tropical Americas. Synthesis of the stratigraphic charcoal records yields indexes of 1) the inter-site variability in charcoal accumulation; and 2) the mean rate of regional charcoal accumulation during 500-year increments since 3500 years BP. The age distribution of dated soil charcoal particles from non-archeological sites provides an independent measure of variation in regional charcoal accumulation; whereas the age distribution of soil charcoal dates from archeological sites records variation in charcoal accumulation related to anthropogenic biomass burning. The charcoal accumulation indexes derived from stratigraphic records begin to increase at ~2000 years BP, obtain maxima during the 500-year period just prior to European arrival, then decline to near-minimum values during the 500-year period subsequent to contact. Similarly, the age distribution of soil charcoal dated from non-archeological and archeological sites both indicate increases in charcoal accumulation from 2000 to 500 years BP followed by decline. We interpret the covariation between measures of charcoal accumulation derived from archeological and non-archeological sites as a consequence of the expansive influence of anthropogenic activity on the regional fire regime. The increase in regional charcoal accumulation apparent in the stratigraphic and soil charcoal records beginning at 2000 years BP correlates with expanding indigenous population, agriculture, and fire use in the tropical Americas. The rise in inter-site variability in charcoal accumulation after 2000 years BP is consistent with a demographic shift toward sedentary agrarian communities and localized increases in charcoal accumulation in densely populated centers. The declines in regional charcoal accumulation and inter-site variability after 500 years BP suggest a correlative cause related to reduction in anthropogenic biomass burning resulting from pandemic-driven population collapse. Published reconstructions of Pre-Columbian demography indicate that during European conquest, pandemics killed ~90% of the indigenous American population (~60 million), estimated to represent ~20% of the 16th century global population. Our predictive calculations suggest that fire reduction in the tropical Americas indicated in the charcoal record is associated with massive forest regeneration on ~1 x 106 km2 of land and sequestration of >10 Gt C into the terrestrial biosphere, which contributed to the ~2% global reduction in atmospheric CO2 levels and the 0.1‰ increase in δ13C of atmospheric CO2 from 1500 to 1700 A.D. recorded in Antarctic ice cores and tropical sponges.