Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment
Abstract
Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.
- Publication:
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Science
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- DOI:
- 10.1126/science.1132027
- Bibcode:
- 2006Sci...314.1442G
- Keywords:
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- ATMOS