Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005)
Abstract
The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°-0.4°C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4-5 hurricanes from the period 1986-1995 to the period 1996-2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs.
- Publication:
-
Geophysical Research Letters
- Pub Date:
- May 2006
- DOI:
- 10.1029/2006GL025881
- Bibcode:
- 2006GeoRL..3310805K
- Keywords:
-
- Global Change: Atmosphere (0315;
- 0325);
- Global Change: Climate variability (1635;
- 3305;
- 3309;
- 4215;
- 4513);
- Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology