Dynamo-based simulations of solar activity differences between north and south hemispheres and forecasts for cycle 24
Abstract
Recently we (GRL, 2006, vol.33, L05102, doi:10.1029/2005GL025221) built a predictive tool based on a Babcock-Leighton type flux-transport dynamo model of solar cycle. By assimilating the observed surface magnetic source data since cycle 12, we ran the model and showed that the model can correctly simulate the relative peaks of cycles 16 through 23. Extending the simulation into the future we predicted that cycle 24 will be 30-50 percent stronger than current cycle 23, because a strong 'seed' for cycle 24 is being formed, from the combination of latitudinal fields from past three cycles, 21, 22 and 23, in the dynamo layer in our model. We are currently exploring the data assimilation in our model for the N and S hemispheres separately, in order to simulate hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle features. Preliminary results show that the model has skill in simulating the N and S hemispheres separately, as well as the difference between the two hemispheres. We will discuss which hemisphere of the Sun should become more active in cycle 24 and which hemisphere should reach cycle peak first. This work is partially supported by NASA's LWS grant NNH05AB521, SR&T grant NNH06AD51I and the NCAR Director's Opportunity Fund. National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by National Science Foundation.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFMSH22A..06D
- Keywords:
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- 2162 Solar cycle variations (7536);
- 7524 Magnetic fields;
- 7536 Solar activity cycle (2162);
- 7544 Stellar interiors and dynamo theory;
- 7959 Models